Moody’s conferma il rating alla Sicilia: stabilità, equilibrio finanziario e riduzione del debito

E’ Ba1, stabile il rating riportato nell’ultimo aggiornamento del Credit Opinion di Moody’s. Il report dell’Agenzia di New York giunge a conferma dei dati già pubblicati dall’Assessorato dell’Economia nel Bollettino sul Fabbisogno Finanziario di Ottobre

di Carmelo Cutuli

 

Il dettagliato report evidenzia la rilevante riduzione del debito che nel 2020 scenderà al di sotto dei 7 miliardi, con una tangibile riduzione dell’incidenza sulle entrate d’esercizio (passata dal 48,5% del 2017 al 44,8 del 2019 per attestarsi al 43,2 nel 2021), in drastica riduzione anche il costo del debito.

L’Agenzia di rating ha rilevato inoltre un progressivo incremento della liquidità nel biennio ad oggi ben oltre il miliardo di euro[1].

Significativo l’apprezzamento per i progressi organizzativi e le riduzioni di spesa in diversi settori a partire da quello sanitario.

Appare importante sottolineare che il report di Moody’s sottolinea la rilevanza dell’accordo concluso dalla Regione con lo Stato nel dicembre 2018 per gli effetti positivi che determina sugli equilibri finanziari della stessa, in termini di minori trasferimenti nel triennio (circa 900 milioni).

Di rilievo le considerazioni sul miglioramento della gestione amministrativa della Regione  attraverso quelle che vengono qualificate come “politiche di bilancio credibili e di risanamento”,  garantendo trasparenza e dettaglio nelle informazioni[2].

Viene infine sottolineata la rilevanza dell’autonomia finanziaria regionale scaturente dalle previsioni dello Statuto speciale, delle quali la Regione sta negoziando la piena attuazione con lo Stato – negoziato ormai alle battute finali – di cui proprio oggi si tiene uno degli ultimi confronti al Ministero dell’Economia e Finanze a Roma. E’ altresì evidenziata e confermata l’opportunità della scelta di istituire, nel 2010, il Fondo Pensioni (una proposta dell’allora Assessore Gaetano Armao).

In conclusione, nelle stesse ore nelle quali a Roma giunge la lettera interlocutoria della Commissione europea sullo schema di bilancio 2020, che chiede chiarimenti sulla riduzione del debito (“Italy’s plan does not comply with the debt reduction benchmark in 2020”), a Palermo si registrano con soddisfazione gli effetti del risanamento e della riduzione del debito rilevato da Moody’s e dalle altre agenzie di rating, peraltro già prospettati nell’ultimo aggiornamento del Bollettino sul fabbisogno finanziario dall’Assessorato dell’Economia[3].

Note e riferimenti:

Sicily has traditionally maintained large capital investments, which, coupled with delays in state funding, has fuelled growth in its financing deficit and, ultimately, increased its debt. At year-end 2018, Sicily reported net direct and indirect debt of EUR7.4 billion (48% of operating revenues), down from EUR7.7 billion in 2017. The region expects its debt stock to further decline to EUR6.7 billion or 43% of its operating revenue by 2021. The vast majority of the direct regional debt stock at year-end 2018 consisted of bank loans and had an average maturity of around 22 years. Debt-service costs (including interest and principal) of EUR526 million in 2018 absorbed a modest 3.3% of total revenue, down from 3.7% in 2017. We expect the debt service level to further decrease to an average of 2.9% during 2019-2021 period. The regional liquidity profile gradually improved during the last two years. As at June 2019, the region hold EUR 1.4 billion cash on monthly average covering 2.6x the annual debt service.

Governance considerations are material to Sicily’s credit profile. The region has improved the management of its accounts through credible policies over the last few years and its budgeting process is prudent. The region delivers documents in a somewhat timely manner; accuracy and detail of information are largely complete with some manageable shortfalls; and the level of data transparency is satisfactory.

Moody’s confirms Sicily’s rating: stability, financial balance and debt reduction

New York’s rating agency report confirms data already published by the Sicilian Regional Government’ Department of Economics in its October Financial Resources Bulletin

by Carmelo Cutuli

Moody’s detailed report highlights the significant reduction in debt that will fall below €7 billion in 2020, with a tangible reduction in the incidence on operating revenues (from 48.5% in 2017 to 44.8 in 2019 to 43.2 in 2021), also drastically reducing the cost of debt.

NY based rating agency has also noted a progressive increase in liquidity over the two-year period to date well in excess of one billion euros. [1]

There was also a significant appreciation of organisational progress and expenditure reductions in a number of areas, starting with health care.

It is important to underline that Moody’s report highlights the importance of the agreement concluded by the Sicilian Region with the Italian State, in December 2018, for the positive effects it has on its financial balance, in terms of fewer transfers over the three-year period (about €900 million).

There are also important considerations on improving the administrative management of the Region through what are qualified as credible budgetary policies and consolidation, ensuring transparency and detail in the information.[2]

Finally, the importance of regional financial autonomy arising from the provisions of the Special Statute is stressed, whose full implementation is being negotiated by the Region with the State – now in its final stages – of which one of the last discussions at the Ministry of the Economy and Finance in Rome is being held today. It is also highlighted and confirmed the appropriateness of the decision to establish, in 2010, the Pension Fund (a proposal by former Councillor Gaetano Armao).

In conclusion, at the same time as the European Commission’s interim letter on the 2020 budget outline arrives in Rome asking for clarification on debt reduction (“Italy’s plan does not comply with the debt reduction benchmark in 2020”), Palermo’s Sicilian Regional Government HQs is pleased to note the effects of the debt consolidation and reduction noted by Moody’s and the other rating agencies, which were already projected in the latest update of the Bulletin on financial resources by the Department of the Economy.[3]

Notes:

Sicily has traditionally maintained large capital investments, which, coupled with delays in state funding, has fuelled growth in its financing deficit and, ultimately, increased its debt. At year-end 2018, Sicily reported net direct and indirect debt of EUR7.4 billion (48% of operating revenues), down from EUR7.7 billion in 2017. The region expects its debt stock to further decline to EUR6.7 billion or 43% of its operating revenue by 2021. The vast majority of the direct regional debt stock at year-end 2018 consisted of bank loans and had an average maturity of around 22 years. Debt-service costs (including interest and principal) of EUR526 million in 2018 absorbed a modest 3.3% of total revenue, down from 3.7% in 2017. We expect the debt service level to further decrease to an average of 2.9% during 2019-2021 period. The regional liquidity profile gradually improved during the last two years. As at June 2019, the region holds EUR 1.4 billion cash on monthly average covering 2.6x the annual debt service.

Governance considerations are material to Sicily’s credit profile. The region has improved the management of its accounts through credible policies over the last few years and its budgeting process is prudent. The region delivers documents in a somewhat timely manner; accuracy and detail of information are largely complete with some manageable shortfalls; and the level of data transparency is satisfactory.